May 19 2019

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Indiana hoosiers location

Indiana’s Latest Upset of Michigan State Puts Hoosiers Back in Bubble Conversation

Arguably the most turbulent roller coaster season in college basketball took another surprising turn Saturday as unranked Indiana locked up Michigan State point guard Cassius Winston on the final possession in Bloomington as the Hoosiers held on for a 63-62 win against the No. 6-ranked Spartans.

The victory sealed Indiana’s home-and-road sweep of Michigan State this season, something the Hoosiers haven’t accomplished since 2013, when they earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.

Unlike those Hoosiers, which were led by Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller, this year’s group won’t earn a top seed in the tournament.

In the latest edition of NCAA Tournament Bracket Scouting, we dropped Indiana to the “auto-bid or bust” category after the Hoosiers dropped to 13-14, signaling that their at-large chances were all but over.

Back-to-back wins – something they hadn’t achieved since January 3 – against Wisconsin and Michigan State have reopened that door.

The arc of Indiana’s season is reminiscent of Oklahoma’s 2017-18 campaign, when the Sooners also started 12-2 (they were actually 14-2 at one point in mid-January) before losing 11 of their final 15 games, finishing 8-10 in the Big 12 and 18-13 overall after losing in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament.

They earned a No. 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

The Hoosiers’ latest win improved their overall record to 15-14 (6-12 Big Ten) with two regular season games to play: at Illinois Thursday and home against Rutgers next Sunday.

After sending the Spartans home empty-handed, here’s the Hoosiers’ resume broken down by quadrant:

  • Quadrant 1: 6-9
  • Quadrant 2: 1-5
  • Quadrant 3: 2-0
  • Quadrant 4: 6-0

The long and the short of it is that Indiana has a lot of good wins (especially compared to most bubble teams) and no bad losses. That’s a great place to be in early March.

However, the Hoosiers have a lot of losses, period.

As a reminder, the record for most losses by a team that received an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament is 15 losses, which was achieved by Vanderbilt in 2017 and Alabama last season.

Given that Indiana currently has 14 losses, history says it has to win its next two games to keep its at-large hopes alive or else it’ll have to win the Big Ten Tournament in order to make the NCAA Tournament.

Beating Illinois and Rutgers wouldn’t add much heft to Indiana’s resume, given that those games fall under Quadrant 2 and Quadrant 3, respectively. But at this point in the season, Indiana could simply use wins of any kind to get further away from .500 overall and closer to .500 in the Big Ten.

This is the first year of the Big Ten’s 20-game regular season schedule, so there’s no precedent for the worst conference record for a team that earned an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Regardless of the results of Indiana’s final two regular season games, the Hoosiers will arrive in Chicago for the Big Ten Tournament needing to win. It’s just a matter of how many games.

Of course, it’s tough to concretely state what Indiana needs to accomplish between Saturday and Selection Sunday to earn an at-large bid. That depends on how many conferences’ auto-bids are “stolen” by teams that wouldn’t have made the NCAA Tournament otherwise and how other bubble teams fare in the next two weeks.

Here’s a look at how Indiana’s resume compares to other NCAA Tournament bubble teams.

In the chart below, we list Indiana followed by the teams from the Last Four In, First Four Out and Next Four Out – in order – from Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament bracket projections from Friday.

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Indiana’s Latest Upset of Michigan State Puts Hoosiers Back in Bubble Conversation

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